The Department for Transport is consulting on options to introduce more "flexibility" into the rollout of electric vehicles (EVs). The key question is whether we should speed up the transition to EVs or slow it down?
Background
The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate was first proposed in 2020 as part of the UK's plan to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles. Its purpose was to accelerate the uptake of electric cars and vans and give manufacturers confidence to invest in EV production and charging infrastructure.
The mandate came into force in January 2024, although the final deadline had already been pushed back from 2030 to 2035. Under the current rules:
- No new petrol or diesel-only cars and vans can be sold from 2030.
- By 2035, all new cars and vans sold must be zero-emission.
Therefore, sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles will still be allowed between 2030 and 2035.
The mandate also sets annual EV sales targets for manufacturers. For cars, the target started at 22% in 2024, increased to 28% in 2025, and rises steadily to 80% by 2030.
The Story So Far
In 2024, fully electric vehicles accounted for 20% of new cars and 7% of new van sales. In 2025, electric cars reached 23% of new sales, rising further to 24% in the first half of 2026.
At first glance, this appears to be below the mandate. In theory manufacturers can be fined £15,000 per car if they fail to achieve the targets. However, so far manufacturers have met their obligations through reducing the selling price (to increase demand) and through a range of flexibilities built into the scheme. These include the ability to:
- Borrow allowances from future years or bank surplus credits from exceeding targets.
- Trade allowances between cars and vans.
- Buy and sell credits with other manufacturers.
This Consultation
The Government remains committed to the overall goal of achieving 100% zero-emission new car and van sales by 2035. The consultation is therefore not about the end goal, but about the trajectory to get there.
The current pathway follows the familiar "S-curve" seen with many new technologies. Adoption starts slowly, then accelerates as costs fall and consumer confidence increases, before eventually levelling off.
Four alternative trajectories are now being consulted upon, the first three of which are a significant watering down/ delay from the current targets:
- Reach 70% EV sales by 2030 through a flatter S-curve.
- Reach 60% EV sales by 2030, resulting in a linear growth path to 2035.
- Reach 50% EV sales by 2030, with slow early growth followed by rapid growth.
- Retain the current 80% target for 2030 but introduce additional flexibilities.
Why Move to EVs?
The Government's reasons for encouraging EV adoption are clear:
- Reduce carbon emissions and help meet the UK's climate targets.
- Improve air quality.
- Strengthen energy security by reducing reliance on imported petrol and diesel and decrease fuel price volatility.
- Reduce motoring costs as battery prices continue to fall.
I would add a fifth reason. Electric vehicles are a good fit with our electricity system. Many drivers can be encouraged through smart tariffs and pricing incentives to charge their vehicles overnight when electricity demand is low. As transport becomes electrified, the fixed costs of operating the grid can then be spread across a larger volume of electricity sales, helping to reduce electricity costs for all households and businesses. In addition, we will soon be able to use our car batteries to ‘return’ electricity to the grid (V2G) to increase flexibilities – and will be paid to do so. This is likely to be cheaper, and at a larger scale, than buying a home battery.
But, what about?
The main consumer objections to electric vehicles are:
- Higher purchase cost.
- Lack of public charging infrastructure.
- Charging inconvenience.
- Environmental impact of mining for batteries.
- Range anxiety, particularly in winter.
I address most of these concerns in my earlier blogs. The technology continues to improve with longer ranges, faster charging, continued roll-out of public chargers and easier payment methods. Battery costs continue to fall, and the impact of mining, whilst significant, is less than the impact of drilling and extracting oil.
Discussion
Norway has led the world in adopting EV’s. The share of new car sales that were electric rose from just 6% in 2013 to 86% by 2021. It is now close to 100%.
This demonstrates that rapid change is possible. However, even in Norway, only around 36% of all cars on the road were electric in 2025.
This highlights that achieving 100% electric new car sales is not the same as having 100% electric cars on the road.
Cars are now more reliable and resistant to corrosion than ever before. In the UK, the average car is around ten years old, while the average vehicle is scrapped at about thirteen years. Many remain on the road for twenty years or more.
As a result, some people may still be able to drive an older petrol car well into the 2050s, assuming petrol remains readily available.
However, climate change is a serious challenge, and transport is one of the largest sources of emissions. It is also an area of our lives with a viable alternative. The shift to EVs is therefore something we should achieve as quickly as practical. Electric vehicles are more energy-efficient, quieter, and generally more reliable because they have fewer moving parts than conventional cars.
Final Thoughts
The Government's ZEV Mandate consultation is highly technical and contains a range of detailed policy options.
I am sure additional flexibilities could be introduced to support manufacturers, but I favour maintaining a rapid transition to electric vehicles. At the same time, more support is needed for households that cannot install a home charger, particularly those living in flats or properties without off-street parking.
Next time you buy a car, you have a choice. Assuming your drive your car 10,000 miles per year over a 15-year lifespan:
- A petrol car may be responsible for around 8 tonnes of carbon emissions from manufacturing and a further 40 tonnes from burning petrol.
- An electric car may be responsible for around 15 tonnes from manufacturing and about 4 tonnes from charging from an increasingly low-carbon electricity grid.
In total, choosing an electric vehicle today could ‘save’ approximately 29 tonnes of carbon emissions over its lifetime. It will also reduce air pollution.
Of course, walking, cycling and public transport remain even lower-carbon options where they are practical.
The consultation closes on 23 October 2026. I would encourage anyone with an interest in transport, climate change or the future of the automotive industry to respond. I urge you to promote option 4.
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